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EDIT:
3rd post INTRO I'll just preface that I'm no mathematician, so to be honest, I have no confidence in this, and it's probably flawed, I might have made some typo or mistake or whatnot. Someone more qualified should try it? Also, if you're only interested in the numbers, look at just the tables, you can ignore the other text.
But well, I do find math kind of fun, so I got the interest to do this. In hindsight, it's probably going to be all for naught, though. Dream said that he didn't care so much about the run, so this instead is just about seeing if the math is right, I guess, or putting things into a clearer? perspective.
For comparison, I couldn't find the specific video/stream/session that the moderator team found suspicious, and rejected, so I could only guess it's this, on
Youtube, or
Twitch.
ABOUT (WHAT I THINK IS) THE SUSPECTED VIDEO/SESSION 6:33 to 6:54 (based on the timer on the top-left of the video). Dream trades with a piglin, first is (6) pearls, second is crying obsidian, and third is (5) pearls, 2 out of 3 trades and leaves (~66% rate). Though, 6 in total but the remaining three were ignored/passed, so Dream got 2 pearl trades out of 6 (~33% rate)?
13:02-13:10 finds the end portal, a 1-eye, puts in 8, and leaves.
16:49-16:58. Kills enderman and gets 1 enderpearl... (1 out of 1. 100% rate. Uh-oh. It's over? Noo... I was too worried about the piglins' but not the endermen rates! T_T... Oh, well, already did all this. Don't know if I want to spend more time.)
I initially thought it was 1.16.4. I felt a bit sad that when I saw that clip, him getting 6 ender pearls, more than the max of 4 in the current wiki, especially so since it was after I spent like 2 hours testing how rare ender pearls were in that version, it was not matching what was there.
But, the paper mentioned the RSG run was 1.16, and the video I found was in 1.16. So, I got hope, and ended up at the wayback machine.
Bartering – Official Minecraft Wiki (archive.org). June 13 snapshot, 11 days before 1.16.1 was released. Ender pearls are given as "4-8".
THE INFO I GOT Okay, so the data I have is put into a table format.
The 1st column, "Numberange of trade" is, like, the nth trade in that stack of gold ingots. For this simulation of RNG, by playing minecraft 1.16, I put 4 piglins so that it doesn't take me too long, in a 2x2x1 or 1x2x2 hole, and just dropped a stack of gold ingots, and stood nearby atop as they processed the stack, so I couldn't exactly see what the exact order or number of the trade was unless I spent more time in observing the frames in my test that is kind of not-so-reasonable for this kind of subject, bigger issues out there.
The 4th column, to the left of "to" is the "min", the smallest number of trades since the previous pearl trade, and to the right of "to" is the "max", the largest number of trades since the previous pearl trade.
The 5th column is where I thought, "I only need 14 pearls, so I would stop trading when I get at least 14 pearls, the extra 2 that I can just go
meh when it breaks."
1st stack of, or 64, gold ingots: Numberange of trade | No. of ender pearls | No. of trades in the range being pearl trades | Min to max since previous pearl trade | Rate when stop because sufficient |
20 to 21 | 5 | 1 | | |
53 | 6 | 1 | 32 to 33 | |
Total: 11 ender pearls; 2 out of 64 were pearl trades (3.125% chance). At a ratio in total, one pearl per ~5.818 gold ingots
2nd stack of, or 128, gold ingots: Numberange of trade | No. of ender pearls | No. of trades in the range being pearl trades | Min to max since previous pearl trade | Rate when stop because sufficient |
17 to 20 | 5 | 1 | 27 to 30 | 3/80 (~3.7%) to 3/83 (~3.6%) |
37 to 40 | 10 | 2 | 17 to 23 | |
41 to 44 | 6 | 1 | 1 to 7 | 3/5 (60%) to 3/8 (~37.5%) |
49 to 52 | 8 | 1 | 5 to 11 | |
61 to 64 | 6 | 1 | 10 to 16 | 2/13 (~15.3%) to 2/16 (12.5%) |
Note: what I did here (could be wrong?), for number of trade, 41 to 44, and its 5th column, 37 has become the 1st trade, so, I'll count that as 1, and the 36th is zero, so, 41 - 36, 5 is the lowest (acceptable) amount of trades for that session.
35 ender pearls in this stack alone. Total: 46 ender pearls; 7 out of 128 were pearl trades (~5.468% rate). At a ratio in total, one pearl per ~2.844 gold ingots.
3rd stack of, or 192, gold ingots: Numberange of trade | No. of ender pearls | No. of trades in the range being pearl trades | Min to max since previous pearl trade | Rate when stop because sufficient |
5 to 8 | 7 | 1 | 5 to 11 | |
7 ender pearls in this stack alone. Total: 53 ender pearls; 8 out of 192 trades were pearl trades (~4.166% rate). At a ratio in total, one pearl per ~3.692 gold ingots.
4th stack of, or 256, gold ingots: Numberange of trade | No. of ender pearls | No. of trades in the range being pearl trades | Min to max since previous pearl trade | Rate when stop because sufficient |
1 to 4 | 5 | 1 | 57 to 63 | |
13 to 16 | 4 | 1 | 9 to 15 | 3/73 (~4.1%) to 3/76 (~3.9%) |
45 to 48 | 8 | 1 | 29 to 35 | |
57 to 60 | 7 | 1 | 9 to 15 | 2/13 (~15.3%) to 2/16 (12.5%) |
61 to 64 | 7 | 1 | 1 to 7 | |
31 ender pearls in this stack alone. Total: 84 ender pearls; 13 out of 256 trades were pearl trades (~5.078% rate). At a ratio in total, one pearl per ~3.047 gold ingots.
And... Admittedly, I gave up checking the other stacks, the other 6 following the first four in my testing. I don't want to spend too long on doing this, since it's probably going to be fruitless. I can't believe it took me 4-5 hours to do this all, time I could never take back T_T, and it could be debunked in less than 30 minutes, especially more so since I'm not a mathematician, just someone who knows only the basics. Anyways, math is fun, I guess, and I felt the want to do this.
So... I'll just summarize what my luck got me...
Total End Result (Just simple math with the data): 149 pearls from 10 stacks of, or 640, gold ingots. At a ratio in total, one pearl per ~4.295 gold ingots.
(149 / 4)
minimum pearls per pearl trade / 640 gold ingots. ~37 out of 640 were pearl trades (~5.7% rate). (149 / 8)
maximum pearls per pearl trade / 640 gold ingots. ~18 out of 640 were pearl trades (~2.9% rate)
Rates in this info-thing I gathered (in the 4 stacks, the 256 trades, I bothered to check) ordered from luckiest to unluckiest when stopping every at least 14 pearls because no more is necessary:
60% of 5 consecutive trades were pearl trades ~37.5% ... pearl trades ~15.3% ... pearl trades ~15.3% ... pearl trades 12.5% ... pearl trades 12.5% of 16 consecutive trades were pearl trades ~4.1% ... pearl trades ~3.9% ... pearl trades ~3.7% ... pearl trades ~3.6% of 83 consecutive trades were pearl trades
Dream's rate (in the video I think they found suspect): 66% (2/3) or 33% (2/6) of the trades were pearl trades.
So, what I've been thinking is... 1 in the billions chance... is kind of odd... Also, Geosquare did mention that these chances do not equal Dream cheating, though they correlate. I agree that the maths are telling of the chances of anyone getting
that lucky, but, well, the math ends up a basis in judgement, I suppose.
submitted by Like I know that it gets rid of your digital save data, but what about my PHYSICAL games? Just kinda nervous and want to know.
submitted by I got that weird issue since I changed my SIM card where I can use apps like Youtube Discord or Twitter but can't access to any server-based app (any game like Genshin Impact, and no VPN seems to work), using only mobile data.
However everything goes back to normal once I switch to wifi
For the record I have a Snapdragon 845 Xiaomi Mi8 and I live in France, not sure if it helps
Has anyone encountered this issue ?
submitted by I logged on today and opened the world map to see no clouds, I messed around with the filters and everything is zero basically, zero clouds, zero precipitation, zero wind. I thought this was a little wired but I didn’t mind. I then loaded up a flight to see that all the textures on the ground is just a bad grass texture, not the big maps stuff. I then went to Yokohama to see if photogrammetry was working, which it was there. I went to everett WA in the us (which has photogrammetry) and it’s not working there. I looked in my data settings to see everything was set to yes/on. Nothing is working to fix it, any help besides reinstalling?
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